Price vs average cost (MVRV Ratio)
Who's profiting, who's losing, and by how much?
MVRV compares Bitcoin's current price to what holders actually paid. Read more
Moderate profit — the average holder is winning but the cushion is modest. No strong directional signal.
The market is split. The average holder is barely in profit — up just 36%, which doesn't leave much cushion. Patient long-term holders are still comfortable at 51% profit, but their gains have been shrinking. The real pain is concentrated in recent buyers, who are down 5% on average. This pattern — strong hands still okay, weak hands hurting — has historically been a setup that resolves upward, but it takes time.
When MVRV drops to 1.0, the average holder is exactly at breakeven. Below 1.0, the average person is losing money — this has only happened during the worst bear markets, and every time, it turned out to be one of the best buying opportunities ever.
Over the past 6 months, overall MVRV moved from 1.61 to 1.39, patient holders from 2.47 to 1.54, and recent buyers from 0.87 to 0.97. The spread between the lines shows how different groups are experiencing this market.
At 0.63, this is in the middle — not giving a strong signal either way. The market isn't clearly cheap or expensive right now.
Related: Realized Price — MVRV tells you how much holders are winning or losing. Realized Price tells you the actual dollar values — where the floors and ceilings sit. View Realized Price →
Understanding Price vs average cost (MVRV Ratio)
Think of this as a scorecard for every Bitcoin buyer combined. It takes the current price and compares it to the price people actually paid for their coins. If the number is above 1, the average person is up. Below 1, they're down. Simple as that.
The all-holders version gives you the broadest read — everyone from HODLers to day traders. But that average can hide important differences. Patient holders (people who've held for 5+ months without selling) are the foundation of the market — they don't panic easily. Recent buyers (last 5 months) are the most emotional group — they react fast to price swings. Watching all three together shows you where stress or comfort is concentrated.
When it drops below 1, it means the average person who bought Bitcoin paid more than it's worth today. That sounds bad — but every time this has happened, prices eventually went much higher. When it climbs above 3, most people are sitting on huge gains and the temptation to cash out gets really strong. The 2017 and 2021 peaks both hit between 3.5 and 4. The sweet spot is between 1 and 2 — enough profit for holders to feel good, but not enough to trigger mass selling.
Recent buyers are the market's emotional barometer. When they're making money (STH MVRV above 1), confidence is high and new money keeps flowing in. When they're losing money (below 1), panic sets in fast. During bear markets, watching STH MVRV bounce off or break below 1.0 tells you whether a dip is buyable or the start of something worse.
Long-term holders are the people who didn't flinch during the last crash. Their average buy price tells you about the deep health of the market. This gives you a cleaner picture because it ignores all the day traders and short-term flippers. When it flashes a signal, it tends to mean more.
This works because it tracks crowd behavior with real data. When everyone's winning, greed takes over and a top is forming. When everyone's losing, fear takes over and a bottom is forming. It's basically a mood ring for the whole market, except it uses actual numbers instead of vibes.